2019 arizona real estate housing real estate market update with 2020 predictions
Jay Bru 480-466-4917 (January 2020)
I recently attended an Arizona Real estate market update with Fletcher Wilcox and Tina Tamboer. They are two of the smartest and most knowledgable individuals with regard to real estate in the valley.
They are in agreement on Arizona and its stats. I have read many blogs and I also use the data from ARMLS. The MLS covers the Metro Phoenix area which is 4,857,962 people and the central part of Arizona. Different stats contain different areas of the cities, so many market updates will vary slightly.
I’m going to show where we’re at, where we’re going, and why.
Prices will continue to go higher in 2020! It mainly comes down to Population growth, supply and demand.
- AZ has the 3rd highest state population increase.
- 330 people moving to AZ every single day
- Maricopa county population growth is Number 1 in the US for four years running.
- Monthly Supply of homes is 2.05 months, healthy is 5-6 months. (time it would take to sell all existing homes without new listing)
- AZ had 4 cities in the top 20 for ‘Best cities for jobs’ from Wallet hub, (1- Scottsdale, 6-Chandler, 8-Tempe, 20th place is Gilbert)
- Predictions for 2020 are Prices ⬆︎, Inventory – tight, New homes sales ⬆︎, Interest Rates ⬇︎.
- Supply of homes is low due to a lack of building.
- Sales: The year-over-year comparison is up +18.5% from 2019-2020
- A 4% price appreciation is expected for 2020.
- Interest Rates to remain low.
- The USA and Arizona are doing a tremendous job creating jobs, click here to read more about that.
- Rent rates remain high and increasing, click here https://www.jaybrugroup.com/apartment-rents-climb-faster-metro-phoenix-anywhere-u-s/
(2019 total stats with 10 pages, click here)
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As we move into 2020, there is no more important metric than supply and how supply relates to demand. Looking ahead, we’re coming out the box hot, characterized by above normal demand and extremely low supply.
STAT reported 18,049 active listing (excluding UCB & CCBS) at the beginning of 2019, and we begin this year with only 12,425, a decline of 31%. This here says it all. The time it takes these builders to build these homes, people stop moving here, and for a balanced market to take place, could take over 2 years. Predicting home prices past 2 years is irresponsible in my mind. Zillow for instance has a 20 year glance, how do you know that what will happen in 5 yet 20? So many things can happen.
In conclusion, just do the eyeball test. Look for cranes in Tempe AZ, try and rent a house off the mls or zillow (they go quickly), try purchasing a decent house for under $250k, and read this blog. This isn’t my imagination, this is real life stats from the MLS, The Cromford Report, and Wilcox report. So I don’t care if you have a conspiracy theory that your drunk uncle told you that house prices were crashing in 2020, this is real data from very smart people.
Events that could possibly bring down home prices are war, change in presidency, natural disaster, or some black swan that i’m not thinking about like student debt or something like that. What do you think? I’d love to hear your thoughts!
But Demand is up, Supply is down 31% from last year, Maricopa county is number 1 in population growth, and there is not enough building happening. I predict a 4% appreciation rate and I expect Arizona to become a larger destination then it is today.
Hope this helps, call me if you have any questions.
Jay Bru
480-466-4917
jay@jaybrugroup.com
