V-shaped recovery was the accurate prediction of the economy and home sales months ago.

It appears residential sales of single family homes in Greater Phoenix (Maricopa County)
are on their way to a V-shaped recovery and that the median purchase price may
reach an all-time high this June.

June to Rival March for 2020 Month with Most Residential Sales – Sales Hit Bottom in May

March of 2020 is the month this year with the highest number of sales of single family resales in Greater Phoenix.
There were 6,122 sales in March.  Sales this June may end up higher than March sales.

June of 2020 has twenty-two business days to close a transaction or sale. Business days are defined as the
number of days in a month in which both the escrow company that is closing a sale, and the county recorder
in which a property is located are open on the same day. For a transaction to close the escrow company
sends the necessary documents to the county recorder to be recorded. Once the county recorder records
the documents the transaction is closed and the sale is complete.

For the first eleven business days or first half of June, June sales are running a close second compared to
March. There were 2,748 sales in the first eleven business days this June compared to 2,839 sales in the
first eleven business days in March. With all the pent up demand June may overtake March in total sales.

NOTE: The focus of this report is the sale of single family resales in Greater Phoenix (Maricopa County).
The information in this report is compiled from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services, Inc. (ARMLS).
ARMLS data shows that approximately eighty percent of all their sales every month in Greater Phoenix
are single family resales.

Sales of single family resales in Greater Phoenix most likely hit the bottom in May. May had 4,787 sales
which were the lowest number of sales since January.   When comparing sales in the first eleven business
days of May to June, there are 586 or twenty-seven percent more sales in June.  June sales appear
to be forming a V-shaped recovery.  June sales most likely will be in the range of 6,100 to 6,300 sales.
Even if June 2020 sales are over 6,000, they will fall short of the 6,827 sales in June of 2019.
But, hey, we are in recovery.

Median Purchase Price Going Up in June after Dropping in May

The median purchase price of a single family resale dropped in May.  In May it was $326,750.
This was a drop of $8,250 or two percent from April when it was $335,000.  It is back up in June.
For the first half of June it is $332,500.  It most likely will be higher by the end of June.
PREDICTION:
When the final June results are in – the median purchase price of a single family resale may
break the previous record of $335,000 set in March and April of this year.

The median list price of a single family resale dropped in April to $339,990, the lowest of the year.
In May it went back up to $350,000 and is at $350,000 for the first-half of June.

Inventory of Single Family Resales

With both sales and listing inventory down year-over-year the estimated months of supply has
changed very little. With the recent increase in sales, active listings are down.  On June 1st,
there were 7,114 active listings. On June 15^th 6,411 active listings.  There is less than a one
month of supply of listings under $350,000.  For listings from $350,000 to $500,000 there is
less than a two month supply.  See the table below for active listings and the estimated
months of supply by price range.

Look-Out for July! It May Be a Better Month than June

Look for the V-shape to firm up in July. On June 1^st there were 4,904 single family
resales under contract.  On June 15^th there were 5,556 under contract.  The majority
of these will close in July.  Another reason why the median purchase price may hit
$335,000 or more in June and surely in July is because median purchase price lags
median list price. Currently the median list price is $10,010 higher than in April.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/in-boon-for-builder-stocks-housing-market-shows-early-signs-of-a-v-shaped-recovery-51592404547

Median Purchase Price Single Family Resales

Active Listings and Estimated Months of Supply

• Purchase applications are at an 11 year high; up 8% last week
• Housing starts up 4.3% in May nationwide, 21.5% in the West – 974k homes started in May
  • According to RL Brown Housing Reports, new permits for Metro Phoenix are up 7.23% YTD; there were 1550 new build permits in Metro Phoenix issued in May
• Mortgage rates are at an all-time low; Freddie Mac national averages last week were 3.13% for a 30 year fixed and 2.58% for a 15 year fixed
• 42% of pandemic buyers engaged in a bidding war –
• Third week in a row that the overall forbearance numbers have dropped; currently 4.6 million homeowners in forbearance (8.8%  of all homeowners)
• FHFA extends foreclosure moratorium for borrowers backed by Fannie & Freddie to the end of August (protects 2 million homeowners who defaulted in February)