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Market Recap and the Top real estate trends in the United States for 2018-2019

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Welcome to 2019 Here is a market recap, the top trends, stats for Scottsdale AZ, what to expect in the housing markets, and what the data says about the crash.  Here is a quick bullet point right to the point facts to save you some time reading.  Click links to read more.

 

2017-2018 Scottsdale Arizona Market review:

Check out this chart from the MLS for Scottsdale AZ and just look at the median Sale price of homes gain month after month for 24 months.  That is one healthy market.  And, with a crash warning everywhere on many different outlets, the data says not to worry so fast.  Let me try and explain, if you look at the slow steady growth of home prices, Arizona is a very healthy market.  Especially with the influx of people coming here from places like California and Chicago, it’s still very reasonably priced.  Interest will keep climbing if the economy still keeps surging and as for a black swan, that’s anybody’s guess, possibly the Student debt crisis?  Arizona has a lot going for it with low taxes, beautiful weather, and easy living.

Yearly Market Comparison For Scottsdale AZ

Comparing Entire MLS
As of Wednesday, January 2, 2019
Search Parameters: Property type Residential; Dwelling Type of ‘ Single Family – Detached’; City/Town Code of ‘Scottsdale’.

Look at the growth of the Median Sale price over the 24 months.

 

Number of Sold Listings Dollar Volume of Sold Listings Median Sale Price
2017 2018 Diff Chg 2017 2018 Diff Chg 2017 2018 Diff Chg
January 351 384 33 9.4% $ 234,434,736 $ 279,399,830 44,965,094 19.1% 500,000 550,000 50,000 10.0%
February 355 420 65 18.3% $ 239,943,350 $ 293,265,996 53,322,646 22.2% 508,000 516,500 8,500 1.7%
March 530 529 -1 -0.2% $ 357,995,552 $ 387,913,994 29,918,442 8.3% 525,000 580,000 55,000 10.5%
April 476 526 50 10.5% $ 334,054,631 $ 388,423,446 54,368,815 16.2% 536,250 575,250 39,000 7.3%
May 556 596 40 7.2% $ 382,694,779 $ 466,434,450 83,739,671 21.8% 529,250 572,500 43,250 8.2%
June 534 556 22 4.1% $ 390,742,582 $ 425,245,071 34,502,489 8.8% 565,000 604,250 39,250 6.9%
July 413 471 58 14.0% $ 269,032,960 $ 327,435,535 58,402,575 21.7% 529,900 560,000 30,100 5.7%
August 434 460 26 6.0% $ 296,657,266 $ 329,456,989 32,799,723 11.0% 526,750 560,000 33,250 6.3%
September 371 339 -32 -8.6% $ 246,902,379 $ 249,300,218 2,397,839 0.9% 550,000 575,000 25,000 4.5%
October 408 379 -29 -7.1% $ 246,513,781 $ 281,264,222 34,750,441 14.0% 489,950 570,000 80,050 16.3%
November 392 347 -45 -11.5% $ 283,348,258 $ 262,472,923 -20,875,335 -7.4% 536,437 610,000 73,563 13.7%
December 398 347 -51 -12.8% $ 281,825,903 $ 254,121,115 -27,704,788 -9.9% 555,000 590,000 35,000 6.3%
Total 5,218 5,354 136 2.6% $ 3,564,146,177 $ 3,944,733,789 380,587,612 10.6% 530,000 570,000 40,000 7.5%

 

Over 200 people moving to AZ per day!! Census Data Shows Arizona County Is Fastest-Growing in US

| Arizona News | US News https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/arizona/articles/2018-03-23/census-data-shows-arizona-county-is-fastest-growing-in-us?src=usn_tw

Trends

Real Estate has always been a great investing strategy. Many people built their wealth by investing in the income producing properties. And each time period allows us to take advantage of unique opportunities. Here are the trends in the United States we all can capitalize on:

  • Millennials no longer want to own houses. Well, living in your own house was always an American dream. But that no longer applies to anyone – millennials who were just kids during the crash of 2008 saw the value of the houses their parents owned going down substantially. And in some cases, those families owed more money to the bank comparing to the property market value. So they ask themselves now – why would I risk and buy the house while I just can rent and not worry? And many well-established people decide to simply rent; they are AAA tenants and pay top dollars for good properties in great locations;
  • Downtown redevelopments. In many US cities, the downtown is a place to work but not a place to live. People commute to work in the morning and return home in the evening. And that commute is becoming longer and longer as the cities continue to expand. Some people would love to stay in downtown or at least close to it and enjoy their life instead of sitting in that terrible traffic. Fortunately, some cities finally understood that and started a trend of rebuilding the areas around the downtown core. In those cities you can see many new construction projects, they are called “in-fills”. The developers buy land with some old house and build several new houses or an apartment complex instead. And those millennials are just happy to rent – the nightlife only steps away;
  •  Work from home. The advance in technology has a huge impact on the workforce. Some jobs no longer required, some jobs no longer require commuting to the office. That saves people not only time but also money. And some of them need to adjust – yes, driving to work every morning is no longer a requirement but what about the office in the house? Or what about that second family car people no longer use – can it be sold and the monthly payment allocated to a larger mortgage that allows buying the bigger house? Or how about I now can work from the cottage all day long – maybe it is a time to finally purchase one?;
  • Migration of workers to less expensive / tax friendly states. Work from home opens new doors not only to employees but also to their employers – they can move some jobs to less expensive or tax-friendly states. For example, a company in California can move some secondary positions to Texas or Florida where there is no state income tax. So, technically, if in an employee is making $100,000 annually gross in California but only $85,000 annually gross in Texas – the net income still would be more or less the same due to lower taxes. So the company pays less and salaries and does not need to rent that extremely expensive office space. And every person that comes to a new place normally creates 2-4 local jobs;
  • Baby boomers move South. Well, as of 2018 we have approximately 25 millions of baby boomers but that amount is expected to grow to 65 million in only 10 years and to 75 million by the year 2030. And what some of those baby boomers will do? They will likely sell their property (or downsize) and buy a place for themselves in a warm market. That could be a permanent new residence or just a secondary place to escape the cold winter; no matter the reason – the baby boomers will purchase real estate in those sunny states.

This is a list of market reports from the Wilcox report, Freddie Mac, MLS data, and other trustworthy sites.  I’ve put this together, as I personally am an investor in real estate, like to know what’s going on.  As for the near term, we’re fine!  The market is still climbing and a lot of people have healthy equity in their home.  “I’d rather be a year early than a second too late”  is a quote I heard recently and it’s so true, as I am currently putting my Florida home up for sale soon.

If you have any questions or concerns, please call me at 480-466-4917

Jay Bru

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